منابع مشابه
Imprecise Probabilities
Consider the uncertainty about whether it will rain in Brisbane next weekend. A weather forecaster may be able to assess a precise probability of rain, such as 0.3285 . . . , although even an expert should feel uncomfortable about specifying a probability to more than one or two decimal places. Someone who has little information about the prospects for rain may be able to make only an imprecise...
متن کاملComputation with imprecise probabilities
An imprecise probability distribution is an instance of second-order uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about uncertainty, or uncertainty for short. Another instance is an imprecise possibility distribution. Computation with imprecise probabilities is not an academic exercise—it is a bridge to reality. In the real world, imprecise probabilities are the norm rather than exception. In large measur...
متن کاملReasoning with imprecise probabilities
This special issue contains a selection of articles from the First International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities (ISIPTA). The symposium took place in Ghent, Belgium, during the month of June of 1999, under the organization of Gert de Cooman, Peter Walley, Sera®n Moral and Fabio Cozman. The success of the symposium led to the decision to hold a second one, to happen in Cornell, USA, in 200...
متن کاملForecasting with imprecise probabilities
We review de Finetti’s two coherence criteria for determinate probabilities: coherence1 defined in terms of previsions for a set of random variables that are undominated by the status quo – previsions immune to a sure-loss – and coherence2 defined in terms of forecasts for events undominated in Brier score by a rival forecast. We propose a criterion of IP-coherence2 based on a generalization of...
متن کاملIgnorance and Imprecise Probabilities
Decisions or inferences sometimes have to made in situations where substantive information about aspects of the problem are either lacking or conflicting. This is often handled by constructing a non-informative prior by appealing to principles such as indifference, maximum entropy, invariance, or maximizing missing information. Unfortunately these priors and the resulting posteriors may depend ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Risk Decision and Policy
سال: 2000
ISSN: 1357-5309
DOI: 10.1017/s135753090000017x